See also
06.03.2026 10:36 AM
Donald Trump's approval rating dropped another 19% during "Iran week" (38% approve, 58% disapprove). The firing — or rather a personnel reshuffle in the administration — was, of course, driven by that factor. In March, replacing the scandal-tainted Kristi Noem, the post of Homeland Security Secretary will be taken by Republican Senator Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma. By procedure, Mullin's nomination must now be confirmed by the Senate. Noem's tenure drew criticism from members of the Republican caucus, primarily over the department's response to incidents involving the use of force against protesters. The White House said Noem will continue to serve as a special envoy on security issues in the Americas.
Regulators in the Eurozone flag risks tied to Middle East escalation. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos stressed that the base case assumes a short confrontation. However, in the event of a protracted conflict, persistent upward pressure on inflation expectations could force a reassessment of policy parameters. Similar concerns were voiced by the central bank chiefs of Finland and Germany, who noted that a sustained rise in energy prices would weaken economic growth and raise inflation risks. The next ECB meeting is scheduled for March 18–19. The market currently assumes that rates in the euro area will remain unchanged for now, but every new signal on energy prices will demand attention.
Precious metals and oil react mixed in global markets:
As we see, the current mix of factors is increasing uncertainty, but it has not triggered panic selling. A pullback in the eurozone and weakness among some cyclicals indicate that investors are shifting parts of portfolios into defensive sectors and instruments, while the overall market structure remains resilient in the near term. For policymakers, the key task will be balancing a show of resolve on security with measures to limit economic pain for households and businesses, especially on the energy front and the availability of key imports.
The US dollar index strengthened to 99.1 on Thursday, reaching a mid-January high. The increased demand for the US currency has been driven by a mix of geopolitical shock and stronger US macro data: traders are once again treating the dollar as a safe haven, especially amid expectations that regional escalation will push energy prices and inflation expectations higher. That has shifted market pricing for Fed easing: traders now anticiapte only one Fed rate cut in 2026, instead of the two previously expected.
On the diplomatic front, Tehran has not officially closed the Strait of Hormuz, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said, but he did not rule out that option in the future. Meanwhile, shipowners' fears have outpaced official statements: Lloyd's Market Association estimates around 1,000 vessels — roughly half tankers — are queuing at the strait's entrances, and Kpler data show that transit capacity is down about 90%. Ships are preferring to wait in safer anchorages, which is already causing bottlenecks, higher freight, and rising insurance premiums.
The energy market reacted sharply. Brent futures jumped by more than 3% (to $84/bbl), reaching the highest level since July 2024. Drivers were threats of supply disruptions through the key transit artery and decisive measures by some countries, including China's ban on gasoline and diesel exports. Those measures, together with strikes on infrastructure and clear logistical uncertainty, increase the risk premium in the oil market and boost price volatility.
At the same time, EIA data showed US crude inventories rising by 3.5 million barrels (to 439.3 million). That somewhat tempers the supply shock and provides a local buffer for the market. It is precisely the combination of a real threat of disruption and the presence of inventories at a major importer that makes the current price dynamics hard to call. Short-term spikes are likely, while sustained gains would require a prolonged closure of routes or systemic production cuts.
Market reaction was consistent:
At the same time, equity markets are selective. Sectors sensitive to energy costs and logistics (industrials, transport and banks) came under pressure. Broad indices, however, are holding for now as part of the capital is flowing into bonds and defensive assets.
For corporates and logistics, the consequences are obvious: higher insurance and freight rates, more expensive shipping, contract delays, and the need to find alternative routes quickly. Insurance markets and naval escorts are trying to mitigate risks, but their capacity so far cannot fully offset the effect of mass anchoring near Hormuz. Local reopening of the strait and diplomatic de-escalation should reduce volatility. A prolonged blockade or expanded hostilities, however, could turn current swings into a more sustained correction.
The US Court of International Trade has ordered customs to return roughly $130bn to companies — duties collected earlier under Donald Trump. The decision followed the Supreme Court verdict on February 20, which found that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the president to unilaterally impose wide-ranging import tariffs. Such a prerogative, the justices said, must be granted by Congress. The White House reacted quickly and predictably: Trump called the Supreme Court decision a "disgrace."
The president also promised a backup plan. On the same day, he announced an increase in previously introduced levies from 10% to 15% under other legal mechanisms. He also rolled out the so-called "Save America Act," which includes strict rules on voting procedures, limits on mail-in voting, and rules on transgender participation in sports and medical procedures for minors. These are political initiatives aimed at the domestic electoral agenda and will be debated in Congress and the courts.
Against the legal battles and policy moves, the socioeconomic backdrop in the US remains mixed. Labor stats show:
In the layoff announcements segment, there is a relative easing of the shock wave. According to some sources, employers announced 48,307 job cuts in February, far less than January's 108,435 and well below last year's level. Other tallies that use a broader set of companies and sectors put the total announced in February at about 156,742 positions — a figure analysts say remains historically elevated but down from the peak waves of layoffs.
By industry, tech leads in announced reductions, followed by transportation and healthcare. Company cases show mass cuts are often driven by a combination of factors:
Analysts warn that worsening geopolitical developments (in particular, US involvement in Middle East operations and the uncertainty that entails) could accelerate corporate cost-cutting decisions. As one labor market expert noted, further complications in geopolitics could trigger fresh rounds of layoff announcements at quarter-end as firms reassess capex and expenses. Overall, the picture shows that the current "cooling" in the data does not mean risks have gone away. Court decisions on tariffs are reshaping trade rules, while macro and labour data show that the US economy remains in an adaptation phase, balancing resilience with sensitivity to external shocks.
6 March, 10:00 / Germany / *** / Factory orders in January (m/m) / prev.: 5.7% / actual: 7.8% / forecast: -4.3% / EUR/USD – down
German factory orders jumped by 7.8% month-on-month in December. That marked a fourth consecutive increase and the strongest gain since late 2023. Momentum was driven by large contracts in:
At the same time, demand in transport and autos remained weak, and domestic demand rose faster than exports across the euro area. The January forecast points to a sharp drop in orders, i.e. a reversal in momentum is expected. If orders do fall to -4.3% in January, that will signal weakening industrial activity and likely weigh on the euro.
6 March, 10:00 / United Kingdom / *** / Halifax house price index, February / prev.: 0.4% / actual: 1.0% / forecast: 0.9% / GBP/USD – down
In January, the Nationwide house price index showed annual growth of 1.0%, reflecting a recovery in demand and the impact of cheaper mortgage rates. Monthly gains were also notable. Greater mortgage affordability and rising incomes are supporting buyers, though substantial regional differences remain:
The February forecast calls for a moderate slowdown to 0.9%, implying a market correction after recent gains. Sterling's reaction is likely to be volatile as markets reprice the balance between recovering demand and affordability pressures.
6 March, 13:00 / Eurozone / ** / Employment growth in Q1 / prev.: 0.6% / actual: 0.6% / forecast: 0.7% / EUR/USD – up
In Q4, employment in the euro area rose by 0.6% and maintained that pace compared with the prior quarter, indicating labor market resilience but not a pickup. Such stability supports consumption, although recovery rates remain below pre-crisis levels. The Q1 forecast calls for a small acceleration to 0.7%. If employment does pick up, it would boost consumer demand and likely support the euro.
6 March, 13:00 / Eurozone / ** / Q4 GDP growth (final) / prev.: 1.4% / actual: 1.4% / forecast: 1.3% / EUR/USD – down
Q4 2025 euro-area GDP is expected at 1.3% year-on-year, slightly below the prior quarter and reflecting mixed country dynamics:
The next period forecast implies a slowdown to 1.3%, i.e. a softening of growth momentum. That would likely put downward pressure on the euro.
6 March, 14:00 / Germany / ** / New car registrations in January / prev.: 9.7% / actual: -6.6% / forecast: -4.4% / EUR/USD – up
In January, new car registrations in Germany fell by 6.6% after a December spike. Sales patterns vary significantly across markets. The forecast for the next month points to a modest rebound to -4.4%, implying a partial easing of the decline versus December. That would signal some recovery in auto markets and could support the euro.
6 March, 16:30 / US / *** / Nonfarm payrolls (January) / prev.: 48k / actual: 130k / forecast: 59k / USDX (six-currency index) – down
US nonfarm payrolls rose by about 130k in January, a substantial increase across most sectors, led by healthcare and services, while professional services saw job losses. The forecast for January implied a slowdown to 59k. A slower trend would reduce the momentum in the labor market recovery and likely weaken the dollar.
6 March, 16:30 / US / *** / Retail sales growth (January) / prev.: 3.3% / actual: 2.4% / forecast: 2.0% / USDX – down
In December 2025, US retail sales rose by 2.4% year-on-year, slower than November's gain and signaling a cooling in consumer impulse. The slowdown reflects:
Core consumption measures remain resilient. The January forecast points to further deceleration to 2.0%, implying a weaker consumption impulse and likely additional pressure on the dollar.
6 March, 16:30 / US / ** / Manufacturing payrolls (January) / prev.: -8k / actual: 5k / forecast: 3k / USDX – down
In January 2026, the US manufacturing sector added around 5k jobs, reversing prior declines and partly reflecting improvements in supply chains. The gains were uneven across industries and many firms remain cautious on hiring. The February forecast calls for a modest slowdown to 3k, which would soften arguments for faster employment gains and weigh on the dollar.
6 March, 16:30 / US / ** / Services payrolls (January) / prev.: 64k / actual: 172k / forecast: 65k / USDX – down
The US private sector added about 172k jobs in January — a strong gain driven largely by healthcare and social services. That offset declines in some professional areas and paints a mixed labor market picture. The February forecast returns to 65k, so the market does not expect repeat strength. If hiring moderates, this will point to slower employment momentum and weigh on the dollar.
6 March, 18:00 / Canada / ** / Ivey PMI / prev.: 51.9 / actual: 50.9 / forecast: 51.1 / USD/CAD – down
In January, Canada's Ivey PMI fell to 50.9, remaining above neutral and indicating moderate procurement activity. Cost pressures persist, while inventories and deliveries show signs of recovery. The February forecast expects a modest improvement to 51.1, which would boost buyer confidence among procurement managers. If confirmed, it would support the Canadian dollar versus the US dollar.
6 March, 18:00 / US / ** / Business inventories (December) / prev.: 0.2% / actual: 0.1% / forecast: 0% / USDX – down
In November, business inventories rose by 0.1% month-on-month, with gains at wholesalers and manufacturers offset by falls in retail. The December forecast expects zero growth, which would be a dollar-negative signal.
6 March, 13:00 / Eurozone / Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde / EUR/USD
6 March, 16:30 / Eurozone / Speech by ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone / EUR/USD
6 March, 20:00 / Eurozone / Speech by ECB board member Isabel Schnabel / EUR/USD
6 March, 21:30 / Australia / Speech by RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser / AUD/USD
6 March, 21:30 / USA / Speech by Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack / USDX
Comments from major central bank officials are scheduled this week. Their remarks typically drive volatility as markets try to glean policymakers' intentions on rates.
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