The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Tuesday. What could this be connected with, and how should we regard it? We believe that the probability of completing the bearish impulse is now quite high. Donald Trump has begun to talk about fulfilling objectives in Iran and the imminent end of the war. Such de-escalatory rhetoric has calmed the markets. Of course, believing the American leader at his word is akin to jumping from an airplane without a parachute, hoping to land on a trampoline. Nevertheless, there is some reduction in tension.

Let's return to the war in Iran, which has reached a standstill, and to Trump's figure. Many traders, investors, and analysts are now waiting for some logical developments or a justified end to the conflict. Many are perplexed about how this can be: just the day before yesterday, Trump talked about conducting a ground operation in Iran, and the very next day, he presented a conciliatory rhetoric. We would like to remind everyone who does not understand what is happening that there is no logic in Trump's actions. There is no clear plan of action, no clear line that the American president is following. Trump began the war in Iran, hoping that Iran would fall, he would appoint his leader, repeat the Venezuela scenario, begin to control all Iranian oil, and on top of that, rid the world of the "Iranian nuclear threat." But this scenario did not work with Iran.

So now the leader of the White House has to put on a good face under bad circumstances. Trump could announce today that America has won, all objectives have been achieved, and Iran's nuclear stockpiles have been destroyed. That's it, the conflict is over. And what could possibly prevent this notorious Republican from doing so? Trump himself decides when and for what reasons to start a conflict, when and for what reasons to end it, and what constitutes victory.

In George Orwell's novel "1984," there existed an entire Ministry of Truth that constantly fabricated necessary information for the masses. What was printed in the only state newspaper was considered the truth. There were simply no alternative sources of information. Now, in America, Trump is the Ministry of Truth. And anyone who thinks otherwise is a traitor to the American nation.

Thus, we would not be surprised at all if this week, Trump announces a total victory over Iran, the conflict concludes, and the U.S. dollar returns to its usual trajectory under Trump. It should be understood that further escalation of the war in the Middle East will lead to a new rise in the American currency, worsening the U.S. trade balance, which under Trump never became positive. We still maintain our opinion—the dollar will fall one way or another, without options. On the daily timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has bounced off the Senkou Span B line, which may mark the start of a new upward trend in 2025. Or the trend from 2022. Back then, the British pound started its rise from $1.04.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 105 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." On Wednesday, March 11, we expect movement within a range limited by levels 1.3367 and 1.3577. The upper linear regression channel is directed upwards, indicating a recovery of the trend. The CCI indicator has once again entered oversold territory, signaling the end of the correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3428

S2 – 1.3306

S3 – 1.3184

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3550

R2 – 1.3672

R3 – 1.3794

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair has been correcting for a whole month now, but its long-term prospects have not changed. Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the U.S. economy, so we do not expect the American currency to rise in 2026. Thus, long positions with a target of 1.3916 and above remain relevant when the price is above the moving average. The location of the price below the moving average allows for considering small shorts with a target of 1.3306 on technical (correctional) grounds. In recent weeks, almost all news and events have turned against the British pound, prolonging the correction.

Explanations for the Illustrations:

Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, it means the trend is strong;

The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted;

Murray levels – target levels for movements and corrections;

Volatility levels (red lines) – the likely price channel in which the pair will operate over the next day, based on current volatility indicators;

The CCI indicator – its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a reversal of the trend in the opposite direction is approaching.