Bitcoin and Ethereum continued their active rise, benefiting from favorable news regarding the Middle East. At one point, Bitcoin reached $79,500, while Ethereum was just shy of breaking above $2,450.

Today's Bitcoin peak during the Asian session indicates sustained high demand from major players. The active inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs has been a key driver of this growth, reaffirming institutional interest in the digital asset. However, the sustainability of this price rally remains in question.

The deterioration of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, triggered by Iran's seizure of several commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, adds an element of uncertainty. This incident could provoke further escalation and increase global tensions, which could, in turn, put pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin.

In light of these events, buying cryptocurrencies at such high levels requires heightened caution. Traders should carefully weigh the potential risks associated with the ongoing developments in the Middle Eastern conflict and their possible impact on financial markets. Given that the bear market has not yet ended, the current rise could be a serious trap before a new Bitcoin sell-off in May. Despite the optimistic signals from inflows into ETFs, the presence of unforeseen external circumstances calls for a cautious approach. It is essential to remember that bullish trends can be disrupted by unpredictable events, as the current situation in the Middle East demonstrates.

As for the intraday strategy in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to act on any significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating the continuation of the long-term bull market, which remains very much intact.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today when the price reaches around $78,500, targeting a move to $79,400. At around $79,400, I will exit the buy trades and immediately sell on the rebound (expecting a 30-35-pip move in the opposite direction from this level). Growth in the pair today can only be anticipated with a strong position from the US and Iran. Important! Before buying at a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price, and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.

Scenario #2: I can also buy Bitcoin at the lower boundary of $78,000 if there is no market reaction to its downside breakout back to $78,500 and $79,400.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today after the price reaches around $78,000, targeting a decline to $76,800. At around $76,800, I will exit the sell trades and immediately buy on the rebound (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from this level). Pressure on the pair today will return with a strong announcement from the US or Iran. Important! Before selling at a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.

Scenario #2: I can also sell Bitcoin at the upper boundary of $78,500 if there is no market reaction to its upside breakout back to $78,000 and $76,800.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today when the price reaches around $2,366, targeting an increase to $2,395. At around $2,395, I will exit the buy trades and immediately sell on the rebound (expecting a 30-35-pip move in the opposite direction from this level). Important! Before buying at a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price, and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.

Scenario #2: I can also buy Ethereum from the lower boundary of $2,345 if there is no market reaction to its downside breakout back to the levels of $2,366 and $2,395.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today when the price reaches around $2,345, targeting a decline to $2,315. At around $2,315, I will exit the sell trades and immediately buy on the rebound (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from this level). Important! Before selling at a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.

Scenario #2: I can also sell Ethereum at the upper boundary of $2,366 if there is no market reaction to its upside breakout back to $2,345 and $2,315.