Defense alliance and falling oil: Middle East paradoxes

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan agreed to form a collective defense alliance, coinciding with a successful offensive by Yemen's internationally recognized government against the Houthis and the restoration of control over the strategic Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. Yet the region remains a tinderbox: insurgents continue to attack Saudi airports, and global shipping faces serious risks from a spike in tanker attacks around the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite the military tensions, oil prices are falling: markets no longer fear a supply shock thanks to record Saudi exports that reached 5.8 million barrels per day. Additional downward pressure came from the G7's decision to release 100 million barrels from strategic reserves and OPEC+'s decision to maintain quotas — moves that have largely removed concerns of a global crude shortage. Follow the link for more details.

Oil shortage and winter supply risk

The global energy market is teetering on the edge of a winter crisis after inventories were critically depleted following the Iran-related conflict. Heads of major companies, including Vitol and Saudi Aramco, are sounding the alarm: worldwide reserves are critically low, and G7 measures provide only temporary relief. Supplies from the Middle East have yet to return to pre-conflict levels, and the market is being saved only by increased output elsewhere and weaker demand in China.

Meanwhile, major players are preparing for a demand rebound once the war ends. Chevron, having optimized output with new technologies, is reportedly considering participation in a new pipeline from Iraq to the Mediterranean. On the political front, Donald Trump abandoned plans to ban US diesel exports and instead backed coordinated use of strategic reserves with Europe. Chevron noted that the move helped avoid a loss of allied confidence and a fresh spike in prices. Follow the link for more details.

Dollar holds firm, euro and pound struggle for support

The euro and the pound sterling opened Thursday under pressure from the US dollar, which even the Fed minutes failed to shake. Germany's August trade balance beat the headline estimate (€19.5bn vs. €19.0bn), but underlying external demand is weakening. Seasonally adjusted, the surplus fell from €22.5bn to €15.0bn. That's coupled with the widest spread between French and German bonds since 2011 and euro-area inflation accelerating to 3.8%.

The euro's only near-term chance lies in the ECB's report on its September meeting, where markets hope to hear hawkish language given a 2.50% deposit rate. With the minutes not yet published, buyers are waiting on the sidelines. Later in the day, attention turns to US statistics, including weekly jobless claims (consensus ~200k) and a speech by Fed hawk Alberto Musalem, who is unlikely to check dollar strength. Absent new catalysts, European rallies are likely to remain short-lived. Follow the link for more details.