Analysis Of Trades And Trading Tips For The Japanese Yen

The tests of the levels I noted did not occur in the afternoon, so I was left without any trades.

Last Friday saw the US dollar rise, but there were no buyers above the 160 level. The USD/JPY pair strengthened slightly following data indicating a recovery in US business activity in March and an unexpected decrease in the unemployment rate, confirming a trend toward stabilization in the labor market. According to information provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of non-farm jobs increased by 178,000 last month. Positive macroeconomic indicators from the US suggest the Federal Reserve may continue its policy of high interest rates – especially amid the risks of a sharp rise in inflation from the US's war with Iran.

Today, there is no data from Japan, so trading will remain within the sideways channel in the first half of the day, as we await significant geopolitical changes on the global stage.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Buy Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching an entry point around 159.66 (green line on the chart) with a target growth to the level of 159.89 (thicker green line on the chart). At 159.89, I intend to exit my long positions and open short positions back (anticipating a move of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the entry point). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 159.53 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to the opposite levels of 159.66 and 159.89 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking the level of 159.53 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 159.33 level, where I plan to exit my shorts and immediately buy back (anticipating a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). It is best to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 159.66 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline to the opposite levels of 159.53 and 159.33 can be expected.

What Is On The Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. It is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones upon entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.