The EUR/USD pair has been declining for the 21st consecutive day, apart from several brief pauses. During this period, the euro has lost 470 points. The decline in the European currency began a month ago as the market prepared for an increase in the FOMC key interest rate. Since then, the market has continued buying the dollar, using any formal reason to do so. In market terminology, such movements are referred to as "order flow," meaning the flow of orders. Typically, large market participants build up an order flow within a range for some time, after which those orders begin to be executed. At that point, the fundamental background becomes largely irrelevant, as the orders have already been placed and are already being executed. For example, there were virtually no reasons to sell EUR/USD this week, apart from the ongoing budget crisis in France. However, budget and public debt problems are present in many countries around the world. This is not unusual in the 21st century. The situation is much more serious in the United States than in France. Nevertheless, the market continues to show almost uninterrupted movement in one direction, with no indication of a corrective rebound.

Yesterday, the United States published the minutes of the September FOMC meeting. The content of the document was largely in line with what traders had expected. Therefore, there was virtually no market reaction to the report, with one exception. The dollar had already gained 60 points during the day. Many economists are no longer even trying to explain the dollar's continued appreciation, as doing so becomes increasingly difficult with each passing day. At this point, the only option is to acknowledge the fact.

Nothing has been able to stop the decline in the euro so far. Neither tighter ECB policy, nor favorable economic data from the European Union, nor disappointing U.S. labor-market data, nor the technical picture and bullish patterns have been sufficient. Since imbalance 19 has been invalidated, the European currency now has every chance of falling below the psychological level of $1.10. Bullish imbalance 19 has turned into a bearish inverted imbalance and generated a sell signal. The bulls were unable to hold above two bullish swings and were unable to use the weak U.S. labor-market data as support. This week, the bears did not even need a reaction to imbalance 24 to resume their downward move.

In September, the FOMC not only raised the interest rate but also indicated its readiness to continue tightening monetary policy, which was sufficient for the bears to continue their strong advance. Even after the Fed tightened monetary policy in September and potentially tightens it again in October or December, there is no basis for concluding that the euro has had no positive developments during this period.

Overall, the fundamental background remains, in the current assessment, supportive of the bulls. Despite the Fed's more hawkish monetary policy stance, this is not the only factor determining exchange rates. U.S. Treasury yields are reaching record levels, placing significant pressure on the federal budget; the U.S. economy has slowed in recent quarters; the U.S. labor market has more often disappointed than exceeded expectations; Donald Trump resumed a series of trade and non-trade disputes with numerous countries in 2026; and the U.S. stock market continues to raise serious concerns due to uncontrolled credit-financed investment in technology companies involved in artificial intelligence development.

The current technical picture indicates that bearish momentum remains in place. Last week ended with the formation of a new bearish imbalance 24, which could provide traders with another sell signal this week. The bulls can now rely only on the next nearest swing at 1.1066 and a potential liquidity sweep of that level.

The economic background on Thursday was virtually absent, and there were no important news releases during the day. Trader activity is currently low, but the day is not over yet. The U.S. session, which is the most important one, is still ahead. Traders may find reasons to make additional dollar purchases before the end of the day.

The bulls still have numerous reasons to take action in 2026. Structurally and globally, Trump's policy, which led to a significant decline in the dollar last year, has not changed. At present, there are no significant factors supporting the U.S. currency despite the FOMC's hawkish stance. Geopolitical developments, which supported demand for the U.S. currency during most of the first half of 2026, are no longer having the same effect.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the European Union:

• United States – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC).

On October 9, the economic calendar contains only one secondary release. The impact of the economic background on market sentiment on Friday is expected to be extremely weak or absent.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

The pair remains, in this assessment, at the stage of forming a bullish trend that has taken a corrective pause for an entire year. The fundamental background shifted sharply in favor of the bears seven months ago, but the broader trend, which has lasted for four years, still cannot be considered invalidated or complete. The bulls may resume their advance before the end of the year, but their only significant opportunity at present is the low at 1.1066 established in June last year. The bears received a new sell signal at imbalance 19 and may receive another signal at imbalance 24 this week. Even weak Nonfarm Payrolls and the sharp increase in inflation in the European Union have failed to provide support for the bulls.