Trade Review and Trading Tips for the European Currency

The test of the 1.1737 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by 25 points.

Ahead of the ECB's decision on key interest rates, the euro showed slight weakness. Traders are anxiously awaiting guidance on the future monetary policy strategy in the euro area, although changes are considered unlikely. It is widely expected that the ECB will keep rates unchanged, with the main focus shifting to the press conference led by Christine Lagarde.

At the same time, a heavy flow of economic news from the United States is expected. The key event will be the release of U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Special attention will be paid to both the headline CPI and the CPI excluding food and energy prices—the so-called Core CPI. If the published data come in above expectations, this could trigger a strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Results below forecasts, on the contrary, may lead to a decline in the dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible if the price reaches the 1.1735 level (green line on the chart), with a target of growth toward the 1.1776 level. At 1.1776, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A strong rise in the euro can be expected only after a decline in U.S. inflation.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1717 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1735 and 1.1776 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1717 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1683 level, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction from this level). Pressure on the pair will return today if U.S. inflation increases.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

What You See on the Chart

• Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.