আরও দেখুন
03.03.2026 12:45 AM
For the first year of Trump's presidency, few could have escaped the contradictory feelings stirred by the comments of the American president. The leader of the US, who actively sought the Nobel Peace Prize last year only to feel slighted when it was awarded to someone else, has started 2026 as if seeking to exact revenge for his personal defeat. First, a military operation in Venezuela was carried out, resulting in the capture of the country's leader, Nicolas Maduro. Then Trump threatened the countries of Latin America and even the European Union, disregarding NATO partnerships and the trade agreement signed last year.
Once again, I personally became convinced that any agreements with Trump are valid only as long as Trump desires them. For example, last year, the EU and the US agreed to a trade agreement that was highly unfavorable to the EU. This year, the Supreme Court ruled that all of Trump's trade tariffs were illegal, finding that America had no right to impose tariffs on European imports. The tariffs are illegal, but the agreement was made under the threat of these tariffs. Trump exceeded his authority but managed to sign an agreement with the EU that included tariffs that are now considered illegal. The US Supreme Court annulled the tariffs, but Trump immediately imposed new ones that are supposed to be in line with the EU agreement, despite the agreement itself outlining completely different terms. Since the tariffs are illegal, the US government must return about $150-180 billion to American businesses and consumers, but the president, smiling, stated that this will not happen. Such events can happen only in America under Trump's rule.
In the upcoming congressional elections in November, Republicans are likely to lose both houses. This is the view held by most economists and political scientists. At best, the Republican Party will retain its advantage in the Senate, but even on that, many analysts now have significant doubts. Americans did not understand or approve of much of Trump's politics last year, and the new year began with events that could cost America and Americans even more than the trade war and new immigration policies. All Republican politicians have a real chance of losing in November, not due to negative attitudes from voters personally towards them and their policies, but due to negative attitudes towards Trump himself. The American electorate understands that the more Republicans there are in Congress, the more power is concentrated in Trump's hands, whose political ratings are rapidly diminishing.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend. Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the US currency. The targets for the current segment of the trend may extend to the 25th figure. At the moment, I believe the instrument remains within the framework of global wave 5, so I expect an increase in quotations in the first half of 2026. The corrective structure a-b-c could be completed at any moment, as it has already taken a convincing form. I believe it is now prudent to seek areas and levels for new purchases with targets around 1.2195 and 1.2367, which correspond to 161.8% and 200.0% on the Fibonacci. However, now we should take into account the war in Iran.
The wave picture of the GBP/USD instrument is quite clear. The five-wave upward structure has completed its formation, but the global wave 5 may take on a much more extended form. I believe that the construction of a corrective set of waves may finish soon, after which the upward trend will resume. Therefore, I can now advise seeking opportunities for new purchases with targets set above the 39 figure. In my opinion, under Trump, the British pound has a good chance of rising to $1.45-$1.50.
